The triple lock is the mechanism that determines how much the State Pension rises each April. It’s one of the most important — and debated — policies affecting UK retirement income.
Read more: See our State Pension guide for a complete overview of this topic.
How the Triple Lock Works
Each April, the State Pension increases by whichever is highest:
| Measure | What it tracks | For 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Average earnings growth | July ONS average weekly earnings (3-month average) | The rate used for 2026/27 |
| CPI inflation | September CPI figure from ONS | 12-month CPI rate |
| 2.5% floor | Minimum guarantee | 2.5% |
The government applies whichever measure gives the biggest increase.
Triple Lock History: Year by Year
| Tax year | Increase applied | Measure used | Weekly amount (new SP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 2.9% | Earnings | £155.65 |
| 2017/18 | 2.5% | Minimum floor | £159.55 |
| 2018/19 | 3.0% | CPI inflation | £164.35 |
| 2019/20 | 2.6% | Earnings | £168.60 |
| 2020/21 | 3.9% | Earnings | £175.20 |
| 2021/22 | 2.5% | Minimum floor (triple lock suspended) | £179.60 |
| 2022/23 | 3.1% | CPI inflation | £185.15 |
| 2023/24 | 10.1% | CPI inflation | £203.85 |
| 2024/25 | 8.5% | Earnings | £221.20 |
| 2025/26 | 4.1% | Earnings | £230.25 |
| 2026/27 | TBC | TBC | TBC |
Notable Events
- 2021/22: The triple lock was temporarily suspended because pandemic-era distortions had inflated average earnings by 8.3%. The government used a “double lock” instead (CPI or 2.5%).
- 2023/24: The 10.1% increase was the largest single rise in state pension history, driven by high inflation.
- 2024/25: The 8.5% rise was controversial because the earnings figure was boosted by NHS one-off payments.
The Triple Lock Debate
Arguments For Keeping the Triple Lock
| Argument | Detail |
|---|---|
| Protects pensioner living standards | Ensures pensions don’t fall behind wages or prices |
| Combats pensioner poverty | UK had one of the lowest state pensions in developed nations |
| Electoral commitment | Repeatedly pledged in manifestos |
| Relatively small cost increase | Most of the increase comes from earnings/inflation anyway |
| State pension still modest | Even after triple lock increases, the full new SP is ~£12,000/year |
Arguments Against
| Argument | Detail |
|---|---|
| Cost is rising rapidly | State pension cost as % of GDP is increasing |
| Generational fairness | Pensioners are better off on average than working-age adults |
| Ratchet effect | The triple lock always picks the highest measure, so pensions compound faster than any single measure |
| Distortions | One-off events (pandemic, strikes) can create artificially large increases |
| Unsustainable long-term | OBR projects it adds 1-2% of GDP to spending over 50 years |
What the Triple Lock Means for Your Retirement
The triple lock significantly affects long-term pension values:
| Scenario | State pension in 2046 (20 years) | Total received (20 years) |
|---|---|---|
| Triple lock continues (~4.2%/year average) | ~£520/week | ~£380,000 |
| Double lock (earnings or CPI, ~3.5%/year) | ~£460/week | ~£350,000 |
| CPI only (~2.5%/year) | ~£380/week | ~£310,000 |
| Flat (no increases) | £230/week | ~£240,000 |
Over 20 years, the triple lock could deliver approximately £70,000 more in total pension income compared to CPI-only increases.
Triple Lock and the New State Pension
The triple lock applies to the full rate of the new State Pension. However:
| Component | Triple lock applies? |
|---|---|
| Full new State Pension rate | Yes |
| Protected payments (above full rate) | No — increases may differ |
| Old basic State Pension | Yes |
| Old additional pension (SERPS/S2P) | No — linked to CPI only |
| Pension Credit guarantee amount | Usually increases at least in line with earnings |
This means people with significant additional pension from the old system may see their overall pension increase by less than the triple lock headline figure.
What Could Replace the Triple Lock?
Several alternatives have been proposed:
| Alternative | How it works | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Double lock | Higher of earnings or CPI | Slightly lower increases; removes 2.5% floor |
| Smoothed earnings link | Average of earnings over 2-3 years | Removes one-off spikes; more predictable |
| CPI + 1% | Inflation plus a fixed margin | Predictable; still above prices |
| Earnings only | Link to average earnings | Pension maintains ratio to working incomes |
| Means-tested increase | Triple lock for poorest; less for others | Targets resources; complex to administer |
Triple Lock and Tax
As the triple lock pushes the state pension higher, an increasing number of pensioners are pulled into income tax:
| Full state pension | Personal Allowance | Gap remaining |
|---|---|---|
| £11,973 (2026/27) | £12,570 | £597 |
With the Personal Allowance frozen at £12,570 and the state pension rising, the state pension alone will soon exceed the tax-free threshold — potentially by the late 2020s. This would mean even pensioners with no other income start paying tax.