Key predictions and areas to watch for the Autumn Statement 2026, including likely tax changes, benefits uprating, and spending announcements.
·4 min read
The Autumn Statement is one of the most important dates in the UK financial calendar. While the 2026 statement has not yet been announced, here are the key areas to watch and what we know so far.
When Is It?
Detail
Expected
Date
Late October or November 2026 (exact date TBC)
Who delivers it
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Where
House of Commons
Economic forecasts by
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
Areas to Watch
Income Tax
Issue
Current position
What might change
Personal Allowance
£12,570 (frozen until April 2028)
Could be extended beyond 2028 or unfrozen
Basic rate band
£12,571–£50,270
May remain frozen (fiscal drag continues)
Higher rate (40%)
£50,271+
Threshold could remain frozen
Additional rate (45%)
£125,140+
Unlikely to change — already lowered in 2023
The income tax threshold freeze is a stealth tax increase — as wages rise, more people pay higher rates. By 2028, this freeze is expected to bring in billions in extra revenue.
National Insurance
Issue
Current position
What might change
Employee NI rate
8% (reduced from 12% in 2024)
Government pledged not to increase — likely to stay
Employer NI rate
15% (increased from 13.8% in April 2025)
May remain — government may look at threshold changes instead
Self-employed NI (Class 4)
6%
Likely stable
NI threshold
£12,570
Frozen alongside income tax thresholds
Capital Gains Tax
Issue
Current position
What might change
Basic rate CGT
18% (residential property) / 10% (other assets)
Rates were increased in 2024 — further changes possible
Higher rate CGT
24% (residential property) / 20% (other assets)
Government has signalled alignment with income tax is possible long-term
Annual exempt amount
£3,000
Could be reduced further or frozen
Business Asset Disposal Relief
10% up to £1m lifetime
May be reduced or reformed
Inheritance Tax
Issue
Current position
What might change
Nil-rate band
£325,000 (frozen since 2009)
Unlikely to increase — major revenue source
Residence nil-rate band
£175,000
Frozen
Pensions in IHT
From April 2027, pensions brought into IHT
Watch for implementation details
Agricultural and business relief
Being reformed from April 2026
Watch for transition details
Pensions
Issue
Current position
What might change
Annual allowance
£60,000
May be reviewed — some speculation about reduction
Tax-free lump sum
25% (up to £268,275)
Could be capped at a lower amount
Pension tax relief
At marginal rate
Possible move to flat rate (long-discussed, never implemented)
State Pension triple lock
Maintained
Under pressure due to cost — watch for changes
Normal minimum pension age
55 (rising to 57 in 2028)
Confirmed for 2028 — unlikely to change further
Benefits Uprating
Benefit
Current uprating method
Expected change
State Pension
Triple lock (higher of earnings, CPI, or 2.5%)
Likely maintained for 2027/28
Universal Credit
CPI inflation
Standard uprating expected
Child Benefit
CPI inflation
Standard uprating expected
Benefit cap
May be reviewed
Could be frozen or increased
Two-child limit
Under review
Possible reform or removal
Housing and Property
Issue
Current position
What might change
Stamp duty
Current rates and thresholds
First-time buyer relief may change
Mortgage interest relief (landlords)
20% tax credit
Unlikely to change
Renters’ reform
Renters’ Rights Bill progressing
Implementation details
Help to Buy alternatives
Lifetime ISA £450,000 limit
Possible increase to cap
Right to Buy discounts
Under review
May be reformed
Energy and Environment
Issue
Current position
What might change
Energy price cap
Quarterly Ofgem cap
Government may announce broader energy strategy
Boiler Upgrade Scheme
Extended to 2028
May increase grant amounts or expand eligibility
Warm Home Discount
£150
Could be increased
Green investment
Various schemes
Possible new announcements
Carbon pricing
UK ETS
May expand to new sectors
How Previous Autumn Statements Affected Your Money
Key Changes from 2024/2025
Change
Impact
Employer NI increased to 15%
Businesses face higher costs — some passed to employees via lower wage growth
CGT rates increased
Higher tax on investment and property gains
Pensions brought into IHT from April 2027
Major change for estate planning
Income tax thresholds frozen to 2028
Millions paying more tax through fiscal drag
Non-dom status abolished
Affects international workers moving to/from UK
What to Do Before the Autumn Statement
Action
Why
Review your ISA contributions
Use your allowance before any possible changes
Check pension contributions
Maximise tax relief before any cap changes
Review CGT position
Consider crystallising gains before potential rate changes
Update your will
Especially given IHT pension changes from April 2027
Review salary sacrifice arrangements
Ensure you are maximising NI savings
How We’ll Cover It
We will update this guide with the confirmed changes as soon as the Autumn Statement is delivered. Bookmark this page and check back when the date is announced.